Model Simulates 8.5 Runs In Game 3 As Rays Host Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers can push their World Series lead to 3-0 on Monday night, and a computer model that simulates each pitch projects 8.5 combined runs in the game. Tampa Bay's Tropicana Field hosts Game 3 at 8 p.m. ET, with the Brewers holding a 2-0 advantage after winning twice in Milwaukee, including a 5-4 comeback on Saturday.

The model runs 10,000 simulations of each matchup and enters the series at 32-25 on its top-rated money-line picks, returning more than $1,000 for players staking $100. For this game, it projects the Over 7 runs at -110, calling that side the value in 58% of its simulations. Tampa Bay is listed at -117 on the money line, meaning a $118 bet wins $100, while Milwaukee sits at +102.

Robert Gasser, a left-hander with a 5-5 record and a 3.87 ERA, starts for Milwaukee. Tampa Bay counters with Freddy Peralta, a right-hander who pitched for the Brewers earlier in his career. Peralta is 10-11 with a 4.42 ERA this season.

The model also projects three Brewers hitters to record 1.3 or more total bases: Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang and Christian Yelich. On the Rays side, it lists five players at 1.2 or more total bases: Yandy Diaz, Junior Caminero, Victor Mesa Jr., Jonathan Aranda and Cedric Mullins.

Tampa Bay's odds carry a caveat in the underlying data. The Over has hit in three of the last four head-to-head meetings, but Peralta's starts for the Rays show a 7-5-1 record against the number when the line is set at 7.0 or lower. Milwaukee's recent games have gone Over in four of its last five contests.

The money-line side the model favors, and which of its other picks it recommends for Game 3, is available through SportsLine. First pitch is set for 8 p.m. ET from St. Petersburg, Florida.