61 Mandates: The Key to Trump Aides' Push for Israeli Cabinet Shift

A 61-mandate threshold is the central requirement for a new Israeli unity government that US advisers are promoting. This proposed cabinet would exclude National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. The goal is to create a broader, more moderate coalition that can advance American diplomatic priorities in the Middle East.

Bill Ackman, a hedge fund manager and Trump backer, publicly urged this shift on Sunday. He argued that a moderate coalition would help Israel restore its international standing. Ackman stated that the presence of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich damages Israel's global image. He said their inclusion hinders the ability to expand the Abraham Accords and improve ties with both major US political parties.

American officials believe a change in government makeup is essential for Trump's Middle East plans. A historic normalization deal with Saudi Arabia is the primary target. Riyadh has demanded tangible progress on the Palestinian issue, making it difficult to advance talks with the current hardline ministers in place. Some in Trump's circle have floated a rotation deal where Benjamin Netanyahu serves first, followed by another prime minister to negotiate with the Saudis before Trump's term ends.

Benjamin Netanyahu has told Trump he wants a unity government. Israeli Ambassador to the US Yechiel Leiter confirmed that Netanyahu prefers a national unity government to the current coalition. Leiter said Netanyahu has made clear he would not serve as national security minister again. However, Yashar party chairman Gadi Eisenkot and former prime minister Naftali Bennett remain opposed to serving under Netanyahu.

Tension between Washington and Jerusalem is already visible. Special Envoy Tom Barrick disagrees with Israel's approach to Syria. Officials around Secretary of State Marco Rubio want to strengthen the Lebanese government. They are also frustrated over inaction regarding Jewish violence in Judea and Samaria. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are reportedly frustrated by how quickly Netanyahu is moving on Trump's Gaza plan.

The political path remains uncertain. If Netanyahu's bloc wins 61 mandates, he would likely get the first chance to form a government. However, it is doubtful that Eisenkot or Bennett would join. Ultra-Orthodox parties are demanding passage of the conscription bill before coalition talks. Otzma Yehudit officials reacted sharply to the prospect of a coalition with Eisenkot. Ben-Gvir urged Netanyahu to form a right-wing government instead.

Trump has not formally endorsed the initiative. He publicly backed Netanyahu on October 18, though Vice President JD Vance did not join the endorsement. US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee denied any American effort to push a unity government. He said the administration does not intervene in Israeli elections or dictate actions to the prime minister.