Russia's African trade at $28bn lags China's $348bn despite 22 heads of state attending summit

Russia’s trade with Africa reached approximately $28 billion in 2025, a figure that stands in sharp contrast to the $348 billion exchanged between China and the continent in the same period. The disparity underscores the limited economic pull Moscow holds relative to other global powers, even as it prepares to host a high-profile diplomatic gathering.

Leaders from 48 African nations are scheduled to arrive in Moscow for the Russia-Africa Summit. The Kremlin anticipates the presence of 22 heads of state or government. This turnout represents a moderate recovery from the 2023 meeting in St. Petersburg, where only 17 leaders attended following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The first summit in 2019, held in Sochi, drew 43 heads of state or government.

Beverly Ochieng, an analyst based in Dakar, argues that the financial incentives for attending are modest compared to summits hosted by the United States or China. "The political incentives for attending are the primary reasons why these countries are there," she stated. She cautioned against interpreting the presence of Russian flags at demonstrations as evidence of widespread continental support, noting that such displays do not mean "all Africans are just sitting around being pro-Russia."

In the Sahel region, military governments in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have turned to Moscow for support to maintain power after France withdrew its forces. The Wagner Group has been replaced by Africa Corps, a unit controlled by Russia’s Ministry of Defence. Human Rights Watch has accused Africa Corps forces in Mali of killing civilians and torturing detainees. In Mali, construction has begun on a gold refinery backed by Russia’s Yadran Group, in which the Malian state holds a 62 percent stake.

Commercial interests are expanding in other sectors. In Guinea, the Russian company Rusal operates bauxite mines and an alumina plant. In Niger, subsidiaries of Rosatom are negotiating uranium projects with the government following the takeover of a mine previously operated by France’s Orano. A separate effort to sell existing uranium stockpiles remains in dispute. Earlier this month, President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia’s goal was not to "steal something from Africa" but to "develop together."

The conflict in Ukraine has also impacted African households. An investigation by Journalists for Justice documented 502 African deaths by June 2026. In Douala, Cameroon, Regina waits for the body of her son Moses, who traveled to Russia to fight. Sergey Eledinov, a former Russian officer, argued that securing governments may actually give them room to look elsewhere. "Survival doesn't create loyalty," he said. "It creates options."

The upcoming summit serves as a test of Moscow’s continued political relevance on the continent. Ochieng noted that the Kremlin can still draw on Soviet-era ties, including the training of African officers and politicians, and the argument that Russia did not colonize Africa.