Airport data shows surge in returning voters before Tuesday election

Israelis are cancelling trips and returning from abroad to cast ballots in Tuesday's Knesset election, a trend that has distorted typical airport traffic patterns. Channel 13 reported Sunday that passenger data from Ben-Gurion Airport reveals a sharp drop in outbound travel and a corresponding spike in arrivals.

The shift is quantified by a comparison of traffic between October 17 and 27 across three years. In 2026, approximately 245,000 passengers departed Israel. This figure is lower than the 270,000 departures recorded in 2025 and the 323,000 in 2022, the last year a general election was held. The decline occurs despite an increase in available aircraft and flight options compared to previous years.

Incoming traffic tells a different story. Without organized airlifts or special flights, the number of passengers entering the country has outpaced those leaving. The gap between incoming and outgoing passengers in 2026 has surpassed 90,000. In the same period last year, that difference was approximately 77,000.

The numerical gap carries potential political weight. Channel 13 estimated that 90,000 voters would be equivalent to roughly two Knesset seats if all were eligible and cast valid ballots. With Israel's electoral threshold set at 3.25% of valid votes, small changes in turnout can determine whether parties near the cutoff secure representation. However, the airport figures include children and foreign nationals who cannot vote, so the exact number of returning eligible voters remains unconfirmed by the passenger count.

This trend aligns with a recent Fly&Vote survey that estimated about 67,000 Israelis living abroad intended to return for the vote. That estimate was based on registration data and a voluntary survey rather than confirmed arrivals. The AID Coalition runs the Fly&Vote initiative, though its activities faced restrictions after legal proceedings initiated by the Likud party. Most Israeli citizens abroad cannot vote remotely and must return to the country to participate.

Alon Ben-Gurion, grandson of Israel's first prime minister, is among those who traveled home. He arrived from the United States with his family and went to Tiberias to vote, according to Channel 13. Interest in returning to vote was visible as early as August, when organizers arranged dedicated flights from New York and Lisbon to meet demand from overseas residents. The 120 Knesset seats are distributed proportionally, meaning additional votes from returning citizens could influence the final seat distribution depending on how those votes are divided among parties.