Michigan House Races: $60 Million Battle in 7th District

Three Republican-held US House seats in Michigan are on the chopping block as national parties battle for control of the chamber. Democrats are targeting the 4th, 7th, and 10th Congressional Districts in the Nov. 3 general election. Cook Political Report classifies all three races as toss-ups. The outcome of these contests will influence whether the GOP retains its slim majority.

The 7th District in mid-Michigan is the most expensive race in the state. First-term Republican Rep. Tom Barrett is defending his seat against progressive Democrat Will Lawrence. Ad spending in the district is nearing $60 million. According to AdImpact data and media reports, Lawrence and his supporters have spent more than $33 million on advertising. Barrett and his outside groups have spent more than $27 million. The campaigns focus on health care, data centers, and the war in Iran.

Marty Jordan, an associate professor of political science at Michigan State University, called the seat a critical pickup for Democrats. He stated that if the 7th District goes to the GOP, it is highly unlikely Democrats can retake the House. The district includes Michigan State University, and student turnout could be a deciding factor. Jordan noted that how Republicans vote in conservative areas like Livingston County without President Trump on the ballot is another variable to watch.

Barrett, a former state senator, won the seat in 2024 by 3.7 percentage points. He previously lost to Sen. Elissa Slotkin in 2022 by more than 20,000 votes. Barrett has criticized Lawrence for past comments on defunding police and his support for single-payer healthcare. Lawrence has attacked Barrett on high prices, the Iran War, and shifting stances on data centers and tariffs.

In the 4th District in Southwest Michigan, incumbent Rep. Bill Huizenga faces state Sen. Sean McCann. Huizenga has held the seat since 2011 and won by roughly 11 percentage points in both 2022 and 2024. McCann, a Democrat from Kalamazoo, chairs the Senate Energy and Environment Committee. John Clark, a political science professor at Western Michigan University, noted that McCann has higher name recognition and fundraising capability than previous challengers. Cook Political Report shifted the district from likely Republican to toss-up last month.

Clark identified Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, and Benton Harbor as key areas for Democratic turnout. He suggested that if college students in Kalamazoo vote in large numbers, it could help Democrats across the ballot. Both campaigns are running similar ads on energy affordability and data centers, making the messaging nearly indistinguishable without candidate names.

The 10th District in metro Detroit became an open race when Rep. John James decided to run for governor. Republican Michael Bouchard is competing against Democrat Christina Hines. Bouchard is a US Army veteran and the son of Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard. Dave Dulio, a political science professor at Oakland University, said the surname may provide a comfort level for voters. Hines is a prosecuting attorney with experience in Macomb and Oakland counties.

Bouchard is campaigning on border security and tariffs to support manufacturing, with the exception of tariffs on Canada. Hines is touting plans to lower health care costs and reform campaign finance. Competing ads label Hines as soft on crime and Bouchard as a rubber stamp for the Trump administration. Dulio pointed to Center Line and Eastpointe as areas where Bouchard’s messaging on manufacturing could overcome the Democratic lean. He said Bouchard needs to stay within shouting distance of Hines in those cities and then make up the difference in Rochester and Rochester Hills.

Nationally, Republicans control the US House by four seats. In Michigan, GOP lawmakers represent seven of the state’s 13 districts. One Michigan incumbent has already lost in the primary. Rep. Shri Thanedar lost in the Democratic primary in the 13th District to state Rep. Donavan McKinney. McKinney is a heavy favorite to win the election in the Detroit-based seat. Democrats are also targeting the 1st District in northern Michigan, where Rep. Jack Bergman faces Democrat Callie Barr. Bergman won the seat by more than 20 percentage points two years ago, but Barr’s campaign argues that recent events have changed the political environment.