Youth Vote Could Swing 12 Knesset Seats

Israelis head to the polls on Tuesday, Oct. 27, in an election where the voting habits of young adults may determine the final balance of power. The Israel Democracy Institute estimates that 640,000 citizens aged 18 to 22 are eligible to vote. This group represents nearly 10% of the total electorate. The institute calculates that their choices could decide as many as 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

Three factors define the current political environment for this demographic. First, high registration rates suggest strong turnout. A May survey by the IDI found that between 80% and 95% of prospective first-time voters said they would definitely or probably cast a ballot. Secular Jewish youth showed the highest confidence, while 87% of Arab respondents indicated intent to vote. These figures exceed the 47% youth turnout recorded in the 2024 US presidential election.

Second, economic and security concerns drive voter priorities. In the IDI survey, national security and the cost of living ranked as the top issues for both Jewish and Arab young people. Tammy Hoffman, head of the IDI's education policy program, noted that these voters lived through the pandemic, judicial reform protests, and the events of Oct. 7. She stated, 'They are worried about their future.'

Third, party allegiance remains fluid. An N12 poll conducted on Sept. 23 found that 74% of young people identified as right-wing or center-right, while 23% identified as left-wing or center-left. In that poll, 16% favored Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party and 14% supported Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud. Hoffman noted that mock elections in high schools showed significant support for Yashar and Beyachad, a party led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has held office since 2009, with a brief interruption in 2021 and 2022. The opposition 'change bloc' seeks to remove his government. Yael Chernyvsky, an 18-year-old from Ramat Hasharon, said she is voting 'so we can change the future of this country.' She plans to support either the Democrats or Yashar. Other voters cite specific policy goals. Omer Gross of Jerusalem will back the Religious Zionist party for its West Bank policies, while Tomer Shiloh of Herziliyah wants the next government to mandate military service for ultra-Orthodox men.

The IDI co-sponsored a pre-election event with the Yigal Allon Center to engage first-time voters. Hoffman explained, 'Israel is a young country with a high birth rate.' She added that high turnout will ensure these new ballots make a difference in the final count.