Hannah Pingree Leads Maine Governor Race by 12 Points

Hannah Pingree enters Election Day with a 49% support level in the race for Maine governor, according to the final New York Times, Portland Press Herald, and Siena poll. The survey, conducted by the Siena Research Institute between October 27 and November 1, indicates the Democrat holds a twelve-point lead over her closest rival. Republican Bobby Charles polls at 37%, while independent Rick Bennett trails at 8%. Only 6% of the 714 likely voters surveyed said they were undecided or did not know their choice.

Pingree, 50, represents North Haven and is the daughter of U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree. She seeks to succeed Gov. Janet Mills. Charles is a 66-year-old lawyer from Leeds who won the Republican primary this summer. Bennett, 63, is a state senator and former Maine Republican Party chair. If Pingree wins, Maine will elect consecutive executives from the same party for the first time since 1959.

The campaign has centered on affordability, specifically record-high heating oil prices driven by the Iran war and rising housing costs due to supply shortages. Pingree has focused on linking Charles to President Donald Trump, who remains unpopular in the state. She has also secured 51% of unenrolled voters, a margin of 26 percentage points over Charles. Approximately 10% of voters who intend to support Republican Sen. Susan Collins also plan to vote for Pingree.

Charles has attempted to tie Pingree to the outgoing administration, referring to the past eight years as the Mills-Pingree administration. He has cited high energy prices, low hospital reimbursement rates, and alleged MaineCare fraud as reasons for change. His support among Republican voters has grown since September, when 73% favored him, to 86% in the current poll. This shift occurred after a period where Republicans were slow to coalesce behind him following a contentious primary.

Bennett has struggled to gain traction, remaining in third place with 8% support in both this poll and previous iterations. Fewer unenrolled voters support Bennett than Charles, despite his public criticism of the two-party system. Pingree has maintained a comfortable fundraising advantage, raising about $5 million during her campaign. The poll was funded with support from the Maine Trust for Local News.