Latino Disapproval Hits 69% Before Midterms

Latino voters are central to the upcoming midterm elections, where control of the House of Representatives hangs in the balance. A new NBC News and Telemundo poll published in October reveals that 69% of Latino voters disapprove of Donald Trump, while only 27% support his administration. This shift in opinion comes as Democrats aim to regain seats in districts with large Latino populations in Arizona, Colorado, and Texas.

The path to this political moment began with the 2024 presidential election, where Latino support played a major role in Trump's victory. Two years later, that support has eroded. In a recent interview with The Associated Press, Chris Martínez, an Arizona resident who voted for Trump in 2024, expressed his frustration. "(Trump) No está haciendo nada por nosotros, para beneficiarnos. Y es una lástima, porque me engañaron y me siento como un tonto," Martínez said. He had hoped for a strong economy and no wars, but feels misled.

The next major step in this political timeline is the general election on November 3. The outcome in the House will likely depend on how many of the 39 million Latino-eligible voters turn out and how they split between parties. Pew Research Center projects this group has grown by more than 5.2 million, or 16%, since 2022. Mark Hugo Lopez, director of Race and Ethnicity Research at Pew, noted that Latinos are now the second largest voting group in the country, behind only white voters, and their impact could be larger than in previous cycles.

Specific policy issues drive the current dissatisfaction. The NBC News/Telemundo poll details exactly where Trump is losing ground. Seventy-eight percent of Latino voters disapprove of his handling of the cost of living, and 74% disapprove of his management of the economy. Among Latino independents, 72% believe Trump's policies have hurt the economy, compared to just 10% who say they have helped. Immigration policy also remains a flashpoint, with 69% disapproving of his approach and two-thirds feeling his border control measures have gone too far. Thirty-one percent of respondents said they or someone close to them started carrying identification out of fear of ICE raids, and 27% know someone detained or deported in the last two years.

Political analysts suggest these economic and immigration concerns are decisive factors. Clarissa Martínez De Castro, vice president of the Latino Vote Initiative, told Telemundo that most Latinos are barely surviving despite hard work. She stated that voters are looking for candidates who offer real solutions for working families and a humane immigration system. Ricardo Rauseo, press secretary for Somos Votantes, echoed this sentiment in an interview with EFE, noting that prices have risen significantly during the current administration.

Despite the polling data, Trump maintains confidence in his standing with Latino voters. In a recent statement, he said, "Creo que lo estamos haciendo bien.. Tengo un tremendo voto hispano." On October 2, during a campaign trip to Texas, he defended his immigration stance, saying, "Tenemos que hacer lo que tenemos que hacer," regarding mass deportations. With the election date set for November 3, the focus now turns to how these 39 million eligible voters will cast their ballots in the pivotal swing districts.

The election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3. The final result will determine which party holds the majority in the House. The data from the October poll and the voter turnout projections from Pew Research Center provide the current baseline for this contest. The next major data point will be the official results from the key Latino-heavy districts in the Southwest and Mountain West states.