Saint Leo students predict outcomes in six tight Senate races

Saint Leo University students are releasing their predictions for six competitive U.S. Senate races ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections. The class, POL 304: Campaigns and Elections, meets only in election years to allow students to analyze electoral history and voter demographics in real time.

Frank Orlando, the political science instructor teaching the course, stated that he wants students to move from being casual observers to trained analysts. He noted that campaigns often focus on older voters because converting younger people into actual voters is difficult. He described the challenge as both a skill and a will issue.

Sophomore Evie Paget is tracking the races in Florida. She predicts Republicans will retain both the Senate and gubernatorial offices. Paget expects Sen. Ashley Moody to defeat Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon and U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds to beat former Rep. David Jolly. She attributed Nixon's nomination to the mobilization of Generation Z voters, noting that Nixon serves as a voice for the youth despite Paget's prediction of a loss.

Elijah Penn, a junior majoring in English and political science, is analyzing the Texas Senate race between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. Penn expects suburban and border counties to determine the outcome. He expressed surprise at how close the race has become, noting that recent polls show it as a dead heat despite Talarico's progressive stance in a conservative state.

Ethan Parks, a junior political science major, is following the Michigan Senate contest between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers. Parks initially thought Rogers would win but now predicts El-Sayed will take the seat. He cited the Middle East conflict as a major concern for younger voters, who are tired of forever wars. He also noted that independents play a large role in the process.

Angeliki Thomas, a senior English major, is studying the Ohio races. She believes Democrats Sherrod Brown and Amy Acton are gaining ground against Republicans Jon Husted and Vivek Ramaswamy. Thomas thinks Ramaswamy's attack ad featuring Acton's estranged mother has backfired. She predicts the Democrats will win both races very narrowly, aided by localized campaigning.

Amaria Solomon, a junior political science major, is researching the Alaska Senate race between Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan and Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola. Solomon believes the state is still in play after watching the October Senate debate. She noted that most registered voters in Alaska are independents and that Peltola is focusing on Alaska issues. Vincent Farides, a junior, is tracking the Iowa race between Josh Turek and Ashley Hinson. He expects independent voters to decide the outcome, noting that a handful of votes in Iowa could decide Senate control.