Texas Border: Latino Voters Turn on Trump After Two Years of Inflation and ICE Raids

48-year-old Nivia, a resident of Alamo, Texas, described the past two years under the Trump administration as "screwed up." The assessment captures the mood in the Rio Grande Valley, a border region that broke from decades of Democratic voting patterns to help elect Donald Trump in 2024. Now, as midterm elections approach, many of those voters say they regret their choice.

Nivia, who requested to be identified by only her first name, cited the aggressive presence of Immigration and Customs Enforcement and the high cost of living. "Innocent people taken away, families torn apart," she said. "Everything’s just worse, everything’s so expensive. And the pay rate doesn’t go up." She voted for Trump in 2024 hoping for economic improvement and targeted enforcement against violent criminals. Instead, she observed rising grocery and gas prices and the deportation of neighbors she knew personally.

The shift in sentiment is occurring in a region Republicans redrew to favor their party last year. State legislators drew three congressional districts in the valley with the expectation that the new conservative lean among Latino voters would hold. Instead, local residents report growing anger over the administration's policies. This unrest could alter the outcome of the state’s U.S. Senate and governor’s races, potentially electing the first statewide Democrats in three decades.

Democratic candidates James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa are campaigning heavily in the area. Vice President JD Vance headlined a Republican event in Harlingen in September. Interviews with nearly two dozen voters revealed common complaints about prices and immigration enforcement. Most said they plan to vote for the Democratic ticket in the upcoming midterms.

Linda, a 75-year-old resident of Mercedes, said she voted for Trump twice in the past but is now voting for a straight Democratic ticket. Her standard grocery bill has increased from approximately $100 to $300. "Because of the way the world’s going right now and who’s handling it. It’s not working," Linda said. She expressed regret over her past support for the president, stating, "I’m finished."

Esteban, 78, of Alamo, noted the palpable anxiety surrounding immigration crackdowns. He said he would vote Democratic due to high meat prices and dissatisfaction with current tactics. San Juanita Garza, 54, of Donna, is also voting for Democrats after an undocumented friend was separated from his wife and placed in a federal detention center. Garza, who is helping a local mariachi band raise funds for the man, said, "Trump is what, a Republican? I’m gonna vote for the Democrats. I’m pro-family, pro-good."

Ken Paxton, the sitting Texas attorney general and Republican candidate for governor, faces opposition in the valley. He was previously indicted on felony securities fraud charges and impeached by his own party on 20 counts, including bribery and unfitness for office. Nivia called the decision to run him "obvious" and criticized the party for keeping him in the race.

Opinions are not unanimous. Apolonio Gonzales, 63, and his wife Ana Marie, 64, both identify as conservative Republicans. They voted on the same day but split their ballots. Apolonio supported the Republican candidates, while Ana Marie voted for all Democratic candidates except in the governor’s race. Ana Marie argued that Trump has too much power and needs a check. "He has the House, the Congress, the Senate. No, no, no, no, no, no. That’s just not right," she said.

Valerie, 23, said she has never voted because the nearest polling station is a 30-minute drive from her home in Alamo. Annette, 46, a school secretary in Alamo, last voted in 2016. She noted that orange juice prices have risen from $1.25 to nearly $2. She also mentioned that the $2,000 tariff dividends promised by the president last year never arrived.

Younger voters in the region are showing increased engagement. Alexandra, 24, planned to vote immediately after her shift at a coffee house in Alamo. She cited the economy, schools, and gun safety as reasons to vote. Alex Perez, 40, who has not voted since 2018, said he felt politicians simply follow the money. After speaking with reporters, Perez emailed to say he would look into voting again.

Early voting turnout in Texas has risen compared to the 2022 midterm elections, with a noticeable increase in voters under 45. The Rio Grande Valley, located near the U.S. Mexico border, serves as a key indicator of voter sentiment in the upcoming elections.