Asia-Pacific leaders brace for limited US policy shifts after midterms

The Philippines has been under a national energy emergency since March, a direct result of the United States and Israel’s war on Iran that began in January. The island nation imports more than 90 percent of its crude oil from the Gulf region, making it one of the hardest-hit economies in the Asia-Pacific following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This severe energy shortage has drained foreign exchange reserves in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and East Timor, according to the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. Neighboring Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam have also spent heavily on fuel subsidies to protect consumers from soaring costs.

With the US midterm elections taking place Tuesday, regional governments and businesses are watching the results closely. However, most analysts do not expect the new Congress to force President Donald Trump to alter his core policies, even if Democrats win control of the House and potentially the Senate. Steven Okun, chief executive of APAC Advisors in Singapore, described the situation as political theater. He noted that while a Democratic-controlled legislature would likely investigate the war and hold oversight hearings, the overall impact of the conflict would remain unchanged. Trump has previously ignored congressional resolutions directing him to withdraw forces, arguing the strikes were acts of self-defense. Overriding his veto on funding or military restrictions would require a two-thirds majority in both chambers, a threshold Democrats are unlikely to reach.

Trade policy presents a similar hurdle for the region. In 2025, the US imposed reciprocal tariffs ranging from 10 percent to 50 percent on approximately 90 countries. After the Supreme Court struck down those tariffs in February, the administration introduced new duties in July. These new tariffs, set at 10 percent and 12.5 percent, target goods from 60 trading partners accused of importing items made with forced labor. The list includes China, Japan, South Korea, and seven Southeast Asian nations. Okun stated that Congress cannot easily change these tariffs, meaning the region’s trade conditions will likely stay the same regardless of the election outcome.

Some experts see a narrow opening for change. Stephen Olson, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, suggested that a strong electoral rebuke of Trumpism could embolden pro-free-trade Republicans. He argued that a Democratic Congress might push for carve-outs that provide a modicum of relief to regional exporters, although a deeper shift in trade policy may wait until the 2028 presidential election. Joshua Kurlantzick of the Council on Foreign Relations added that Asian countries also seek greater stability in security guarantees, including a more visible US presence in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.

One area where change is expected is US policy on Chinese technology. Okun predicted that the new Congress will pass tougher restrictions on China regardless of which party controls it. These measures include the Remote Access Security Act, the Chip Security Act, and the MATCH Act. The laws aim to extend export controls, verify the location of advanced AI chips, and align ally controls on chipmaking equipment. Okun noted that the current president is the least restrictive on China, citing Trump’s recent courting of Chinese President Xi Jinping and his decision to hold off approving a $14 billion package of arms sales to Taiwan to preserve a trade truce.

James Guild, an assistant professor at the Indonesian International Islamic University, warned that a lame-duck Trump constrained by a Democratic Congress might turn more forcefully to foreign policy. He cautioned that Democrats have a poor record of effectively holding Trump accountable through conventional oversight tools, leaving the region to wait and see if they rise to the moment this time.